Bernstein expects bitcoin to hit a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 before climbing to roughly $300,000 at the peak of its next cycle in 2029, framing the cryptocurrency as the leading beneficiary of what the firm calls the “debasement trade.”
The end of falling rates
Analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients:
“Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300K by CY2029E and the market recovering to new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027E.”
The forecast rests on Bernstein’s view that the 40-year era of declining interest rates has ended, leaving governments exposed to ballooning debt-servicing costs as U.S. sovereign debt levels have reached $40 trillion.
The firm argued that rising yields create a self-reinforcing loop of higher interest expenses, wider deficits, and greater borrowing needs.
Bernstein’s analysts wrote:
“Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter, as it is politically less disruptive.”
Hard asset credentials
Bernstein pointed to bitcoin’s unique holder base as evidence of its durability through drawdowns.
About 60% of bitcoin supply is held by price-insensitive long-term holders who sat through a roughly 50% decline from bitcoin’s October 2025 peak.
The firm credited expanding access through spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying with helping limit the drawdown compared to the 75%–90% drops seen in previous cycles.
Bull case and longer-term outlook
In an accelerated scenario driven by aggressive institutional capital flows amid dollar debasement, Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially peaking at $500,000 in 2029.
The firm maintained its longer-term price forecast of roughly $1 million by the end of 2033.
