Key Takeaways
- Bernstein analysts reaffirm a $200,000 bitcoin price target by early 2026.
- Institutional adoption and spot Bitcoin ETF growth are key drivers of this bull cycle.
- Regulatory clarity and stablecoin expansion are expected to accelerate broader adoption.
As bitcoin set a fresh all-time high above $123,000 on Monday, analysts at research firm Bernstein reiterated their expectation of a “long and exhausting” bull market, forecasting bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani emphasized that this cycle is driven by institutional adoption, stronger regulatory clarity, and government backing, marking a shift from prior retail-driven booms. The analysts wrote:
“Our conviction in blockchain and digital assets has never been higher.”
Institutions are now leading
Institutions are now leading the charge, as spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold over $150 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s holdings topping $84 billion.
Major corporations are also increasing bitcoin allocations, reinforcing a structural shift toward bitcoin as a treasury asset.
Bernstein expects U.S. regulatory progress, including through the GENIUS and Clarity Acts, to accelerate adoption and cement regulated firms like Coinbase as key players.
This clarity could also reshore trading from offshore venues and enable a robust domestic derivatives market.
Stablecoins
The analysts highlighted growing stablecoin markets, which have surpassed $250 billion in total supply, and their importance in cross-border payments.
They also foresee a surge in bitcoin wallet adoption as banks and businesses integrate digital assets, potentially increasing users well beyond the current estimated 50 million.
Chhugani commented:
“It is easy to dismiss the current cycle as yet another crypto bull market…but we may have crossed the ‘belief’ stage. We are seeing on-ground adoption and widespread integration with the traditional financial system, backed by regulation.”
Bernstein maintains that these trends—rising ETF flows, stablecoin expansion, and broader blockchain adoption—could propel bitcoin toward its $200,000 target.
