Bernstein analysts reiterated a $150,000 bitcoin price target for the end of 2026, arguing the current drawdown is the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history.
The note, led by Gautam Chhugani, framed the selloff as a crisis of confidence rather than a breakdown in bitcoin’s underlying system.
The analysts wrote:
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history.”
Why Bernstein says this cycle is different
Bernstein said the usual triggers seen in past downturns have not appeared, citing no major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic blowups.
Instead, it pointed to institutional alignment, including a pro-bitcoin U.S. president, growing spot ETF adoption, and rising corporate treasury participation.
US spot bitcoin ETF infrastructure was highlighted as a channel positioned to benefit if liquidity conditions improve, alongside corporate capital-raising mechanisms.
Liquidity, gold, and the macro backdrop
Responding to claims that bitcoin has lagged gold during recent macro volatility, the analysts said bitcoin still trades mainly as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven.
They added that tighter financial conditions and elevated rates have concentrated gains in select areas such as precious metals and AI-linked equities.
Quantum and forced-selling concerns
Bernstein also pushed back on arguments that bitcoin is losing relevance in an AI-driven economy, saying programmable wallets and blockchains fit an emerging “agentic” environment.
On quantum computing, the firm said future cryptographic risks warrant preparation but argued bitcoin is not uniquely exposed versus other mission-critical systems.
The note also dismissed fears around leveraged corporate accumulation and miner capitulation, citing comments that Strategy would only need restructuring if bitcoin fell to $8,000 and stayed there for five years.
Bernstein said miners have diversified by reallocating power assets toward AI data center demand, reducing production-cost pressure and forced-selling risk.
