Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes says BOJ's June decision may spark a Bitcoin rally.
- Japan's 30-year bond yield hit a record 3.185% on May 20.
- Bitcoin hit $112K two days later, as institutions eyed it as a hedge.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) next monetary policy decision could drive a major rally in Bitcoin and other risk assets.
In a June 10 post on X, Hayes wrote:
If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.
I don’t think ordinary Japanese plebes would agree. If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) June 10, 2025
LFG $BTC pic.twitter.com/ET08M6tWeS
BOJ’s upcoming meeting & policy reassessment
The BOJ will meet on June 16–17 to reassess its current quantitative tightening (QT) plan, which started with a 400 billion yen reduction in government bond purchases per quarter in August 2024.
According to Bloomberg, officials are now discussing smaller cuts, potentially lowering the reduction to 200 billion yen per quarter starting in April 2027.
Potential return to quantitative easing
Hayes believes a return to quantitative easing—where the central bank buys bonds to inject liquidity—could push institutional investors toward Bitcoin, as rising bond yields increase concerns over sovereign debt risks.
Bitcoin’s recent surge & future prospects
Bitcoin previously surged to an all-time high of $112,000 on May 22, just two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield reached a record 3.185%.
Bitwise’s André Dragosch noted that institutions began viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against perceived default risks in traditional government debt.
Dragosch told Cointelegraph:
Perceived default risk continues rising, yields continue rising? This is a rough benchmark of why Bitcoin could be heading toward $200,000.
Anticipated market movements
If the BOJ shifts policy next week, Bitcoin could see another significant move.
