Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $250,000 in 2025 if the Fed resumes QE.
- The Fed cut Treasury runoff to $5B monthly, a move Hayes calls 'treasury QE'.
- Most traders expect lower targets, with 60% betting on $110,000 by year-end.
Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots from tightening to quantitative easing (QE), according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
In an April 1 post, Hayes argued that the recent Fed move to slow its Treasury runoff signals the early stages of QE, a condition that could push Bitcoin sharply higher.
Hayes’ analysis
Hayes wrote:
If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.
Fed’s recent actions
On April 1, the Fed reduced its monthly cap on Treasury runoff from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the $35 billion cap for mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Hayes views reinvestment of excess MBS proceeds into Treasurys as de facto QE.
Market expectations
Despite Hayes’ bullish call, only 9% of traders on prediction market Polymarket expect Bitcoin to reach $250,000 this year.
A majority, 60%, see a more modest target of $110,000.
Alternative forecasts
Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts also forecast a lower ceiling, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $132,000 in 2025 based on global money supply growth.
Hayes’ accumulation strategy
Hayes disclosed he has been accumulating Bitcoin between $76,500 and $90,000, stating he believes monetary expansion by the Fed and China will further fuel Bitcoin’s rise.
