Key Takeaways
- Ark Invest's new bull-case Bitcoin target for 2030 is $2.4 million.
- The firm also projects a base-case of $1.2 million and bear-case of $500,000.
- Institutional demand and supply scarcity are key drivers of Ark's revised model.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has significantly increased its bullish Bitcoin forecast for 2030, raising the top-end estimate from $1.5 million to $2.4 million, according to a new report published April 25.
New valuation model
David Puell, an analyst at Ark, said the upgrade comes from a new experimental model that adjusts for Bitcoin’s liquid supply by excluding coins that are lost or long-dormant.
The revised bull-case figure reflects a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between the end of 2024 and 2030.
Price projections
Ark’s updated base-case projection stands at $1.2 million per Bitcoin, reflecting a 53% CAGR, while the bear case is set at $500,000 with a 32% CAGR.
Key market drivers
Puell emphasized that the bull scenario is driven mainly by institutional investment, while digital gold use is central to both the base and bear cases.
He also pointed to emerging market demand as a critical factor:
[Bitcoin’s] low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative… to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies.
Model innovation
The report concludes that many valuation models overlook Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the impact of inaccessible or lost coins.
Puell said:
We believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today.
