Key Takeaways
- Analysts cite historical trends linking US debt expansion to Bitcoin price gains.
- A 38% rally followed a 2020 spending bill; similar action could push Bitcoin to $150K if a new bill is passed.
- Rising global M2 money supply is also seen as a factor supporting bullish Bitcoin sentiment.
Recent analysis from market observers indicates that Bitcoin could see a nearly 40% rally if U.S. President Donald Trump signs the proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” a significant debt-expanding spending package.
Analysts cite debt expansion
According to The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. national debt is projected to reach $40 trillion in 2025, up from $23.2 trillion at the start of 2020.
The Kobeissi Letter stated:
“Never in history has the US borrowed even remotely near the levels we are borrowing now. This is a crisis.”
Prediction market Kalshi has echoed the $40 trillion forecast, fueling speculation of further market impact.
Historical precedent
Analysts point to a historical precedent: when President Trump signed a major COVID-19 spending bill in late 2020, Bitcoin gained 38% within weeks.
If a similar pattern follows, analysts contend that Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 following passage of the new bill.
Global liquidity trends favor bitcoin
Analysts also highlight the influence of global M2 money supply, which recently hit a record $55.4 trillion. According to market analyst Rekt Capital, M2 growth has correlated with Bitcoin price advances throughout its history.
Rekt Capital stated:
“Global M2 will continue to climb after Bitcoin has peaked in its Bull Market.”
For a closer look at this relationship, see the US M2 money supply vs bitcoin chart.
